After the thrilling contest in the Memsie Stakes, the racing spotlight now shifts to the Group 1 Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley.
Punters are eagerly anticipating another fierce battle in this prestigious 1000m sprint.
With several key horses carrying strong form lines into this race, it shapes up as another enthralling stoush.
Having narrowly missed with Mr Brightside in the Memsie, we’re hoping to go one better with our top pick in this year’s Moir Stakes at double figure odds.
Cody Lane found 5 feature race winners in the Autumn.
Land his early prices for this week.
Moir Stakes 2024 Tips and Best Bets
Track Conditions:
The Moonee Valley track is currently rated as a Good 4 but with rain forecasted for Friday (2-10mm), it could end up being a Soft 5 by the time the Moir Stakes is run.
The running rail is in the True position and as usual, will play to those on-pace or forward of midfield.
See who the All-In boys like in the Moir Stakes
The Speed Map
Quite a tricky speed map to work out, as many of these have settled in multiple positions in running.
From the good draw, I’d be stunned if Zac Lloyd doesn’t go forward on 3yo Lady Of Camelot (Barrier 2) and utilise the featherweight of 50kg on her back.
With the lack of speed in the race, I expect Blake Shinn to get across the field from barrier 8 and land outside the pace with Estriella (Barrier 8) to get an unimpeded run.
Ethan Brown will use the inside draw to land on the rail with Mornington Glory (Barrier 1) while Damian Lane will likely sit Chain Of Lightning (Barrier 4) behind the favourite Estriella.
Caballus (Barrier 9) faces a tricky task under Josh Parr getting across from the widest gate and I expect the rest of the field will let it all unfold in front of them and track runners into the race from the back.
The Favourite
Estriella burst onto the scene last autumn, winning three of her four starts in commanding fashion.
After impressively taking out a Group 3 event first-up at Caulfield over 1100m, she went on to lead all the way in her next two starts up the Flemington straight.
This was before finishing a creditable 5th as the favourite in the Group 1 Robert Sangster Stakes.
The now 4-year-old mare seems to have returned in excellent order, with eye-catching performances in both her trial and jump-out at Cranbourne.
However this is the toughest assignment of her career to date, and she faces some unknowns.
Most notably, the 1000m distance and the tricky Moonee Valley circuit.
While her talent is undeniable, these uncertainties make her current price less appealing.
Estriella racing down the Flemington Straight
Tips
The Moir Stakes is an exceptionally tricky race from a form perspective, with many runners carrying question marks.
In races like these, it often pays to look for value, and that’s the angle we’ve taken for our top picks.
1st – Hayasugi ($12.00)
Despite winning the Blue Diamond Stakes earlier this year, Hayasugi finds herself at double-figure odds, which seems a touch generous considering her ability.
She defeated Lady Of Camelot in that Group 1 event, who is currently much shorter in the market.
The Clint McDonald-trained filly has shown she can handle the 1000m distance, winning one of her two starts at this trip when first-up.
With only 50kg to carry and Jamie Kah in the saddle, she should get a favourable run just off the speed, in the ideal position to pounce late.
Hayasugi looks well-prepared, having won a jump-out under a strong hold and finished 3rd in a recent trial.
I expect her to be fighting out the finish.
2nd – Coleman ($12.00)
This 3-year-old colt is also worth backing, particularly given his perfect two-from-two record at the 1000m trip when first-up.
He was narrowly beaten in the Golden Slipper by Lady Of Camelot and carries just 52kg in this race.
While his trial form leading in hasn’t been spectacular, Coleman has proven to be a strong fresh performer.
Under the guidance of trainer Matt Laurie, he should get into the race from a handy position just off the speed.
3rd – Estriella ($3.40)
Estriella is undoubtedly a high-class mare and will likely be in a good spot throughout the race.
However the 1000m distance may be a bit sharp for her, especially this early in her preparation.
I expect her to finish strongly but fall just short.
She’s a horse to watch closely as she progresses through the spring, but I wouldn’t be backing her at this price.
4th – Lady Of Camelot ($3.70)
With a favourable draw and only 50kg on her back, Lady Of Camelot has every chance to be in the finish.
However at her current price, she seems too short to back with confidence.
While she may lead the field, she faces stiff competition from those with stronger form at this distance.
I expect her to be thereabouts but not necessarily winning.
Verdict:
- Hayasugi
- Coleman
- Estriella
- Lady Of Camelot
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